About Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment (QWRA) [UNDER DEVELOPMENT]

Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment (QWRA) describes the process of modeling fire behavior, defining highly valued resources or assets (HVRAs) and their response to fire on your landscape, and assessing benefits and threats to these resources. This process of identifying HVRAs and characterizing threats and benefits from fire can be helpful to land and fire managers as they locate and plan fuel treatments, monitoring programs, and other activities on the landscape.

Terms to Know:

Risk: The "Risk" assessment encompasses both threats and benefits from fire. Some resources may benefit from fire occurrence (i.e. fire dependent plant species) while others may experience loss (i.e. infrastructure).

HVRAs: Highly Valued Resources or Assets. Features on the landscape that are influenced positively and/or negatively by fire.

QWRA accounts for both losses and benefits resulting from fire and takes into account:

  • How often fire occurs (Likelihood)
  • The intensity when a fire occurs (Intensity)
  • The effects of fire on HVRAs (Susceptibility)

triangle with 'wildfire risk' written in its center, and the words 'likelihood', 'intensity', and 'susceptibility' bordering each side

Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment in IFTDSS

This section will be continually updated as the Development Team releases QWRA functionality.

QWRA is a collection of several actions; fire modeling, mapping and characterizing values, comparisons, and so forth. Because each of these can be useful on its own, as well as part of a larger assessment, the Development Team has chosen to phase QWRA into IFTDSS throughout 2019 rather than waiting longer and releasing everything at once. Below is short list of current and upcoming IFTDSS versions and the capabilities that will be released with them:

  • Version 3.2.0.1: Landscape Burn Probability Model added to Modeling Playground. Model landscape burn probability, conditional flame lengths, and integrated hazard. View the results in Map Studio, as a summary report, or download them to your local computer for use in other applications.
  • Version 3.2.0.2: Map Highly Valued Resources or Assets on your landscape.
  • Version 3.2.1 Conduct an Exposure Analysis
  • Version 3.2.2 Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment

Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment workflow progressing from Landscape Burn Probability, mapping Highly Valued Resources or Assets, conducting Exposure Analysis, and Risk Assessment.

Additional Resources to learn about QWRA

USDA Wildfire Risk Management Science Team website: Several risk publications as well as projects and tools.

Pyrologix Publications Page: Most of the listed publications address risk assessment or burn probability.

 

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