Model Burn Probability

Landscape Burn Probability (LBP) quantifies the relative likelihood and intensity of a fire occurring under a fixed set of weather and fuel moisture conditions. Outputs include burn probability, conditional flame length and integrated hazard. Outputs can be utilized as an independent product or be combined with information on the fire susceptibility of highly valued resources or assets.

The LBP model is not as widely known as the more common fire spread models so it may be new to you. Please read the Modeling Considerations section to better understand how to use and apply this model to your work.

conceptual box-and-arrow figure showing landscape, weather, and ignition inputs feeding into fire simulation. Fire simulation produces burn probability and conditional flame length outputs which are both used for the integrated hazard output.

See the Landscape Burn Probability section for full details about this model, its inputs, outputs, and run considerations.