About Landscape Burn Probability (LBP)

Important! Different than FSim - IFTDSS LBP calculates burn probability and conditional flame length for a fixed set of weather conditions for a single burn period. The Large Fire Simulation Model (FSim, Finney and others 2011) used in many national, regional, and unit level assessments, calculates results based on variable weather inputs for fires burning multiple days throughout an entire fire season.

See the LBP technical documentation for more detail.

Landscape Burn Probability (LBP) quantifies the relative likelihood and intensity of a fire occurring under a fixed set of weather and fuel moisture conditions. Outputs include burn probability, conditional flame length and integrated hazard. These outputs can be utilized as an independent product, or as part of a larger Quantitative Wildland Fire Risk assessment, as shown in the workflow illustration below. The LBP model is the foundation of the Quantitative Wildland Fire Risk Assessment process (Scott and others 2013).

Landscape Burn Probability displayed in a workflow as the starting point of a Quantitative Wildfire Risk Analysis

The LBP model is not as widely known as the more common fire spread models so it may be new to you. Please read the Modeling Considerations section to better understand how to use and apply this model to your work.

conceptual box-and-arrow figure showing landscape, weather, and ignition inputs feeding into fire simulation. Fire simulation produces burn probability and conditional flame length outputs which are both used for the integrated hazard output.

See the LBP Tutorial topic for step by step instructions on running LBP.